Commentary
Give me enough lemons, I suppose, and I'll start cranking out the lemonade.
I've been programming computers for pay on and off since 1956. That's no
typo, 1956; more than a half-century! Some of the statistics I heard bandied
about back then was that there were about 10,000 programmers in the whole
country and at about that same time, Thomas Watson, Jr, CEO of IBM said that
he foresaw a time when the total market for computers might reach its
saturation point at 10,000! Today, you probably can find two or three times
those demographics in any average U. S. zip code.
[Trivia sidebar]
Watson, Sr. was the guy that founded IBM when he couldn't get his then
employer, NCR to share his vision on business machines that computed. But
that isn't the trivia I wanted to relate here. The story is, though it may
be apocryphal, that the first words transmitted by telephone were "Mr.
Watson, come here, I want you." These words were spoken by Alexander Graham
Bell (the inventor of the telephone) to his assistant, Thomas Watson, Sr.
[Sidebar Ended]
So you'd think with all that so-called experience, I'd have learned that
no
matter how much I plan, no matter how much I backup, my good friend Bozo
will find some way to pop his unwelcome presence into my life. You're
already ahead of me: this latest installation was no exception and none of
it is Max's doing.
First there's the issue of my ramping up the learning curve on Microsoft's
newly released Office 2007 platform. The new features in Office make the
trip up the curve look worth it to me so I'm not going to squawk on that
matter. It's just a matter of my fingers learning new places to dance on the
keyboard because of the extensive changes in the graphical interface.
That'll probably cure itself in a week or two so I'm not too concerned
there. I'm actually excited by the promising increases in my productivity
that'll probably emerge as a result.
But now there's the issue of SQL Server 2005 (which was not really released
to the public until the fall of 2006; go figger) which I'll refer to as
"mssql" hereafter. Mssql is a huge, complex set of programs, and is the
growing database of choice among all size businesses up to the lower end of
the really big, big businesses. Another problem with mssql is that it's a
computer resource hog! But then I've got the computer muscle now to handle
it so that isn't a real issue.
For about a decade, ms had also been promoting Access, a smaller scaled
database. Its limits were pretty much the starting point for my needs but it
was a dream to program and use and wasn't as fussy about security. Don't get
me wrong. Security is important, but for the needs of a one-man shop like
me, Access' security model is more than adequate.
Which brings me to my dilemma: Bottom line is that I can't get mssql to work
right now. So do I still stick with mssql or do I switch back to Access?
Access would be far easier for me to maintain and support than mssql. And by
going back to Access I can not only eliminate many layers of overhead which
demand my constant vigilance, but I can eliminate entirely, one of the
programming languages (T-SQL) that mssql uses in addition to the more
powerful VBA language. VBA is also the language of choice for Access, Excel,
and Word! Further, since Access, Excel and Word all fall under the aegis of
Office, it's much easier to get the three programs to talk to each other.
So I'm forced to make a decision: I feel confident that if I keep hitting at
mssql, I'll get my break-through sooner rather than later. But then I have
to contend with the more difficult task of maintaining overhead and
coordinating T-SQL with VBA (which takes two individual heavy programs to do
it). On the other hand, I could probably get up to speed with Access again
in about two weeks and find greater productivity in my output thereafter.
So for the rest of this week, probably, I'll be looking into Access to see
whether it can now serve my needs. I haven't used the product for the last
two or three major upgrades so there'll be a little learning curve there, as
well. Main thing I'll be looking for is whether Access can work with the
150,000 some odd records I add to my database each evening gracefully and
maintain its and my dignity with the 20,000,000 some odd records already
existing.
Meanwhile, I have no way of filtering the incoming records right now, unless
you want to help me each night going through the 150,000 records manually
<g>, so I'm not going to be able to add new positions to the NLV Portfolio.
And here's where the "lemonade" comes in.
Currently, the market has been enjoying a bull run for more than four years;
a little long in the tooth many contend. There's a growing contingent out
there, yammering that it's time there was a more than 2 ½% correction since
that's the way the market's performed historically; a couple of years up
follow by a sharp correction (10% to 20%) for several months followed by
another couple of years up. Each cycle ratcheting the market higher and
higher so that on average, the market has enjoyed a long-term growth of
about 11%.
So maybe it's time to take some money off the table, now. Who's right and
who's wrong? Nobody knows. Ya pays yer money and yer takes yer cherce!
Anyhow, I "choose" to take my money off the table now and through the next
couple of months or so. Ok, so maybe choose isn't the precise word, here. So
what? I still can change my mind if I'm able to get up and running again by
next week. I got the mssql lemon and I made the "liquidate my portfolio"
strategy my lemonade. And if the market drops in the interim, you'll think I
was a genius.
And if I'm not able to get up and running by next week, waal, I can always
use those lemons for that Kool-Aid recipe I got from some guy in Guyana a
couple of decades back. <g>
Paper Profits Table
At least we're breathing down the S&P neck again. Right now I could really
be happy with 20%. Couldn't you?
Closed Transactions Table
We've come back in this department as well. I'd still feel a bit more
comfortable if our Avg Wins came a lot closer to our Avg Losses. But at
least we've got our P(win) to keep us going, good.
Put Trading Activity for Report Date
Generally, we want STO Premiums to be as big as possible and we was BTC
Premiums to be as small as possible. This would give us
optimum profits. In other words, we want to buy low and sell high, but with
put writing its always in reverse order. Note that all Premium, STO, and
Profit/Loss Columns should be multiplied by 100 to get the per contract
numbers and that all positions we enter into will always be for as least two
but probably more contracts per position.
Abbreviations: STO-Sell to Open; BTC-Buy to Close; AROM-Annualized Return on
Margin; S/L Tgt-Stop-Loss Target
Sell to Open (STO)
Symbol Expires Strike Premium BTC Tgt S/L
Tgt Sell By Date
None
Account Balance less Margin and Reserve requirements still available to
invest: 7.6%
Buy to Close (BTC)
Symbol Expires Strike STO BTC
Profit/Loss Days Held AROM
MS 04/21/07 $70.00 $0.25 $0.15 $0.10 10
22.7%
ANF 01/19/08 $50.00 $1.00 $0.70 $0.30 33
43.3%
Disclaimer:
This is the fine print and is designed to protect me in these litigious
times, and until I get better wording for this disclaimer, you are under
notice that I am not selling my services nor any other product, nor am I
trying to induce you to trade along or independently, with me. I am merely
offering a journal, so to speak, of my portfolio's transactions and results
with the hope that you will glean information and educate yourselves in the
stock market in general and option trading dynamics in particular. Trading
in the stock market and in options involves substantial risk and much money
may be lost. Beginners, especially those with little or no understanding of
the stock market, lose most, if not all of their capital in a relatively
short time. In other words learn from me and my mistakes and if you want to
risk your money in the markets, that's your business and has nothing to do
with me. I am not your representative, broker, advisor or any other type
agent acting in your interests. As a matter of fact, if you want to invest
your money, I recommend you hire your own advisor other than me.
Copyright © 2007 Leonard Mednick, MBA, CPA (Ret); Managing Member LIME
Holdings LLC
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